So, what's going to happen now?

So, we have a hung parliament. Nobody has an overall (absolute) majority of seats, therefore nobody has power. There are two possibilities from here-on in;

1. Somebody forms a coalition government.
2. Somebody calls another election in the hopes of getting an absolute majority.

The most likely situation right now is #1. The threshold for an absolute majority is 326 seats, and the Conservatives (the largest party) have 309 seats. If they formed a coalition with the Liberal Democrats (57 seats), they would have an absolute majority of 366, more than enough to pass anything even with backbench rebellions. What is almost certainly impossible at this point is a Lib-Lab minority government, as their combined total (Labour's 258 seats and the Lib Dem's 57 seats) add up to a paltry 315 seats, which could be blocked by the Conservative party and the DUP, a unionist party in Northern Ireland who share many principles with the Conservatives.

In any case, it is the Conservatives who have the mandate to govern, having gained the highest percentage of votes and seats in the general election by a long shot. Nick Clegg has stuck to his word, going to form coalition with the party with the biggest mandate. Now it is just a matter to see what kind of offer they strike up - both parties are eager to form a stable, long-lasting arrangement to appease the unstable markets, and a shaky on-and-off coalition would cause mayhem monetarily. John Major has been interviewed, stating that cabinet positions for the Liberal Democrats would be a small price to pay for a stable parliament. It will be interesting to see how this evolves.

If this fails, the acting Prime Minister can calls for the dissolution of parliament, calling another general election. The problem with this is that the Conservative party has the largest well of funds to campaign on, leaving the other parties at a massive disadvantage on the outset. The lack of funds available to opposition parties may well translate into an absolute majority in the Commons for the Conservatives, which may or may not be a good thing, depending on who you are. If you're a member of the general public, is it fair that your May vote has been flushed away so quickly? If you're an MP who has spent thousands on their campaign, is it fair that all that money has been wasted? If you're a businessman or woman, is it fair that the markets go haywire with the current coalition deals being spun?

Again, this will be interesting to see.

Predictions - Outcomes

Now to see how well I predicted the results of the election.

There is a hung parliament, which is kind of interesting. The Conservatives did indeed gain a simple majority. The Liberal Democrats lost seats, which demonstrates my horrible optimism. Bercow did win Buckingham (much to my dismay). The Lib Dems held St. Austell and Newquay (Yay Steven Gilbert!), but the Greens won Brighton (Yay Caroline Lucas!). Neither the BNP nor UKIP gained seats. Everyone, especially the markets and Nick Clegg, was dissapointed. The MRLP were slightly funny, but not hilarious. The swingometer wasn't hugely used, and Dimbleby was very, very tired.

This leads to 7/11 - which I think is a grade C. Oh well.

In other news, I've been introduced to Clan Theory - the theory of how online communities (particularly in games) function and evolve. It's a very interesting topic for me, seeing as I have alot of experience in guilds/clans and how they develop. I think I will be writing on it sometime soon, but I must give credit to the person who introduced me to it (username: Cpt Cave), and the thread that he made.

Predictions

So, as I'm very late today (and pretty tired), I'm going to outline what I think the outcomes of the general election will be. I'll contrast them with the outcomes on May 6th. :)

• There will be a hung parliament.
• The Conservative Party will gain a simple majority.
• The Liberal Democrats will come second, Labour coming third.
• Bercow will win Buckingham.
• The Lib Dems will win St. Austell and Newquay.
• The Greens will lose Brighton.
• The BNP will not gain a seat, nor will UKIP.
• Everyone will be disappointed.
• The Monster Raving Loony Party will make a hilarious appearance.
• The swingometer will be analysed to death by Jeremy Vine.
• David Dimbleby will be tired.
  

Second Election Debate: My Thoughts.

Am I the only person who didn't think anyone did particularly well last night? I felt that all three candidates were on pretty even footing, apart from some concessions.

Gordon Brown seemed dominant and executive on two topics in particular, those of the war in Afghanistan and pensions. He talked confidently about the issues facing troops and measures that had to be taken in order to protect them. The pensions are a big issues since the baby boomers are retiring, and Brown spoke about them with more conviction than the other two politicians. Personally I think he did the best.

David Cameron, I think, was disappointing. Considering the fact that the Conservatives have always been strong on foreign affairs and defence, I feel that he has underperformed. He didn't really stand out to me at all, except when he ganged up on Nick Clegg. Speaking of ganging up, anyone can see that the accusations made by Cameron and the conservative papers are simply sleaze. The Conservatives are desperate to dampen "Cleggmania". Even the presenter had a go, bringing up one of the Newspaper headlines during the debate. I think this made Cameron look weaker, and thus I think he did the worst in this debate.

Nick Clegg did quite well, but he didn't do better than last week's debate. His policies on Europe and Trident were attacked, which I think he defended very well. The Lib Dem's love of Europe could have been an extremely negative thing to the electorate, as many people feel shortchanged, but Clegg fought his corner well. Instead of withdrawing from Europe, I think that people could really warm to becoming a leading force in Europe and being able to change policies in a way that benefits our citizens. I think that his performance may slightly dampen the Liberal Democrat poll performance; Clegg has proven that he's not Barack Obama. He still has two weeks to tweak his position, and another whole debate to go.

Anyway, those are my small thoughts. I think the split for this debate was 32/31/28 for Lab/Lib/Con, but most polls will disagree with me.

Cornish Nationalism at the General Election: Mebyon Kernow

Once again in my small corner of the world, Mebyon Kernow (Cornish for the Sons of Cornwall), are standing for election. The Cornish nationalists have got somewhat of a raw deal, seeing some small successes in elections despite having had a presence in the region since 1951. They currently have three seats in the county council, and polled 7% of the vote in the latest European elections, more than Labour polled in the region. This general election they have decided to stand in all five parliamentary constituencies in Cornwall.

I'm interested to see how much they manage to poll this election, particularly in my newly-created constituency of St. Austell and Newquay (previously Truro and St. Austell), where MK have polled about 2% of the vote in the last two elections. This year the leader of the party, Dick Cole, is standing here, and his popularity is obvious - in the last council election he received 78% of the vote in his ward, and overwhelming majority by any count.

I'm interested to see if his popularity in this area will lead to an increase in votes. There's certainly a market for nationalism in Cornwall - in my constituency MK, the BNP and UKIP are all standing. People feel shafted by the Conservatives and Labour - entry into the European Union has massively impacted the fishing and agricultural industries in Cornwall, leading to alot of anger at the destruction of the local heritage. The county has been greatly underfunded and public services are somewhat poor, and the rapidly increasing tax on fuel is a pain for those of us who live in a rural area where this is little to no public transport available. In these respects, Cornwall regards itself as completely different to those areas past the river Tamar, and this is where the nationalists come in, marketing themselves as a real Cornish voice in parliament.

What are the Cornish nationalists fighting for? Are their ideas similar to those of the other Celtic nationalists?

Their aim is as Lisa Simpson declares: "free Cornwall now". Independence from the United Kingdom.

Their main pledge is that of a Cornish Assembly, like that of the Welsh Assembly first promoted by Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalists. The argument for it is twofold. The government has recognised Cornwall as having "distinct cultural and historical factors reflecting a Celtic background", like Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, all of which have devolved governments. Almost all of Cornwall's funding is decided by Quangos outside of the county, and have been declared "undemocratic and unaccountable" by the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats in parliament have made movements towards devolution for Cornwall, with Dan Rogerson MP (North Cornwall) presenting a devolution bill to the House of Commons in 2009, however the bill failed. Another attempt could be made during the next parliament, but this initial try is an indication that the Liberal Democrats are dedicated to the idea of Cornish independence.

Many of their other policies are primarily local issues, as you'd expect. Cornwall has a huge problem with second homes, to the point that local businesses have been destroyed due to some communities being made entirely of second home-owners. The demand for this kind of housing pushes the prices up to the point where a three bedroomed house can cost half a million pounds in Cornwall - many people cannot afford to get on the housing ladder, and it pushes local people out of the county. MK are dedicated to providing affordable housing to local residents, but so are all the other parties who campaign in the region.

In my view, Mebyon Kernow's biggest problem in the election will be standing out against local candidates. Most of the candidates campaign on similar lines, and the recent attempts at devolution legislation by the Liberal Democrats mean that they're the best people to get the legislation through, particularly if they become the king-makers in the 2010 election. If the Liberal Democrats can propose the legislation to the party and vote the party line, then that would be a sure-fire method of getting it passed. It would be even better if proportional representation was instituted in Westminster elections as a result of Liberal Democrat popularity, meaning that Mebyon Kernow along with many other minor parties would have some representation.

We'll see how it goes on May 6th.

I love the UKIP campaign!

Sure, I may not like their policies (well, maybe a few), but UKIP has one of the best general election campaigns hands down this year. How, you may ask?


Firstly, their possibly offensive poster campaign, telling us to "sod" the Big Three on polling day (not something all of us will be able to do, as they're posting candidates to roughly 4/5 of the constituencies in the country). It's certainly a volatile statement, but it will with all likelihood get the party some extra attention, which can only be a good thing for them (considering that they came second in last year's EU elections). However, will people see this as more of the adversarial Westminster politics that they have become to despise? UKIP's strength should be in their immigration policies, not in their mudslinging.


UKIP's slogan generator seems to be on a roll, as proven at their manifesto launch on the fourteenth. They decided to distribute t-shirts blazoned with the phrase "Withdraw, before it's too late!", which, frankly, is the silliest thing to come throughout the whole campaign from any party. Again, it's a phrase which has the power to provoke, but the joke will be geared towards those immature enough to make an example of it. Will it, perhaps, have the effect of alienating some of their (conservative) voters? If they can't be serious during their campaign, could they be serious in office? Again, it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out, but if the polls are anything to go by (looking at the independents line, which has been wavering between 9 and 10 points since the election was called), then I doubt we'll see UKIP get any seats (although there is one seat I'd love to see taken by UKIP...)

Oh yes. My personal favourite real-life troll has decided to do something amazing, something unconventional, something... troll-like. Nigel Farage MEP is standing for Buckingham, the incumbent constituency of the current Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow. You don't do this. You don't stand against the current speaker. Although there's nothing strictly to stop him (like many things in parliament, the rule isn't in concrete but merely followed by convention), it can be seen as rude through the massive disregard for parliamentary convention, so will that fact work against him? Or will he galvanise the constituents into a protest vote, in a constituency where there is now little democratic choice (the Conservatives are the only party of the main three to stand there, accompanied by candidates from the BNP, the Christian Party, and the Monster Raving Loony Party [what a protest vote that would be!]). The seat is considered safe having been held by the Conservative Party since 1970, and Bercow has a large majority (he had 57% of the vote in the 2005 general election, his nearest competitor having 20%). From the frustrated responses of the Buckingham constituents on news reports and the frantic campaigning of Bercow against Farage, the result could be interesting. I personally welcome either result, as Farage in parliament would hopefully result in many more clips of "parliamentary banter" equal to his tirade against the President of the EU.

In any case, UKIP's performance will be interesting come May 6th. Especially if they give a performance equal to this (0:14-0:58, you won't be disappointed).